SWR rule result initial annual spend

First-year spending supported by a displayed safe-withdrawal rule.

Field: initialAnnualSpend Unit: US dollars Basis: nominal dollars Computed by: Engine Status: Complete chain

Appears in: solver-page (withdrawal rule initial annual spend)

Calculation records

• Swr rule rate and initial spend Model record, justified by derivation

  Purpose: Set initial spending from three published withdrawal-rate parameterizations.

  Statement: decisions/swrComparator.ts#compareSwrRules assigns Bengen 4.7%, Morningstar 3.9%, or ERN 1.75%+0.5(100/CAPE) and multiplies that percent by starting investable dollars to set constant-real initial annual spending before a same-plan ledger comparison.

  Formula: rates = (4.7,3.9,1.75+0.5*(100/CAPE)); initialSpend = startingInvestable * rate/100

  • CAPE: Cyclically adjusted price/earnings ratio (unit: 1) (domain: positive)
  • startingInvestable: Initial investable portfolio (unit: today USD) (domain: nonnegative)

  Timing: initial constant-real annual spending, before ledger comparison

  Rounding: none

  Limits:

  • Published rule parameterizations are planning lenses, not household safety guarantees. The worksheet pins rates and initial spending only; depletion, horizon, estate, and taxes come from the downstream ledger and are feeds.

  Provenance: derived by codex, implemented by codex.

  Independent review: cursor

  Gates (6 of 6 pass): fixture registers a test: pass; pins resolve: pass; families exist: pass; worksheet exists: pass; mutation receipt exists: pass; provenance independent: pass

  Worksheet: swr-rule-rate-and-initial-spend.md Mutation receipt: swr-rule-rate-and-initial-spend.mutation.md

  Evidence tests: swrComparator.evidence.test.ts

  Implemented in: swrComparator.ts

  Is the number of: swr-rule-result-initial-rate-pct, swr-rule-result-initial-annual-spend

  Feeds: swr-rule-result-depletion-year, swr-rule-result-end-year, swr-rule-result-ending-after-tax-estate, swr-rule-result-lifetime-taxes-and-penalties

Records that feed this number

• Starting investable: sum of listed account balances Formula record, justified by derivation

  Purpose: The dollar base the risk-based guardrail fractions and SWR initial spend apply to.

  Statement: Sum current balances of accounts whose type is taxable, equityComp, traditional, Roth, HSA, or cash. Property (home) and other noninvestable types are excluded, including when they carry a value rather than a balance. For taxable $100,000, cash $20,000 and home/property $300,000 the sum is $120,000. Units: dollars. Rounding: none. Exact dollars.

  Formula: B = sum { balance(a) : type(a) in {taxable, equityComp, traditional, roth, hsa, cash} }

  • a: A plan account (unit: account) (domain: finite nonnegative balances)
  • B: Starting investable (unit: usd) (domain: >= 0)

  Timing: once at the start of a solve, on today's balances

  Rounding: none

  Limits:

  • The listed investable set is the same dollar base market paths can fund; property is excluded by type and because it stores value rather than balance
  • Basis fields are not added; only the balance field of an investable account contributes

  Provenance: derived by codex, implemented by grok.

  Independent review: cursor

  Gates (6 of 6 pass): fixture registers a test: pass; pins resolve: pass; families exist: pass; worksheet exists: pass; mutation receipt exists: pass; provenance independent: pass

  Worksheet: risk-based-starting-investable.md Mutation receipt: risk-based-starting-investable.mutation.md

  Evidence tests: riskBasedGuardrails.evidence.test.ts

  Implemented in: riskBasedGuardrails.ts

  Feeds: display-guardrail-balance-thresholds, monte-carlo-success-rate, swr-rule-result-initial-annual-spend

Engine source: engine/src/decisions/swrComparator.ts (SwrRuleResult.initialAnnualSpend)